UK Horse Racing Tips

In the Arkle Finance Handicap (4.50) at Newmarket on Thursday, September 25, Billingsgate is one of the few runners obviously in form and can record his third win of the campaign. Charlie Appleby’s three-year-old won, in this grade, over the testing mile at Sandown three starts ago and, although subsequently only sixth of eleven, beaten 6½ lengths, in a higher grade handicap at Ascot, was only beaten three-quarters of a length in a similar race at Kempton last month.

The son of Exceed And Excel is another 3lb higher in the weights here, but went down fighting at Kempton, despite carrying his head at an awkward angle in the closing stages, and could still be open to further improvement after just seven career starts. Indeed, the Ascot form has worked out well enough, with the winner running an excellent race in defeat when second, off a 6lb higher mark, over 1 mile 2½ furlongs, at Doncaster two weeks ago and the fourth winning comfortably over 7 furlongs on the July Course at Newmarket last month on his only subsequent start.

Billingsgate has won on good to firm and good going on turf, so probably doesn’t want too much rain, although he did run well enough on his seasonal debut, on soft going, at Doncaster in April to suggest that he won’t be unduly inconvenienced if the showers forecast for the East of England overnight on Tuesday and on Wednesday do materialise. The uphill climb to the winning post on the Rowley Mile should play to his strengths, whatever the weather between now and Thursday, and he appears to have excellent prospects of improving his (already healthy) win-to-run ratio.

Statistically, trainer Charlie Appleby has a 3-15 (20%) strike rate with his three-year-olds on the Rowley Mile at Newmarket and jockey William Buick is 9-41 (22%) for the yard on runners in that age group, so the signs are quite encouraging on that score, too.

Another three-year-old trained in Newmarket, Master Of The World, has run well on all six handicap starts since finishing down the field in the 2,000 Guineas, over course and distance, in May, and could be the one who gives Billingsgate most to do. However, the Mastercraftsman colt is 6lb higher in the weights than when winning at York last month and appears more exposed than Charlie Appleby’s charge. In any case, the progressive Billingsgate is readily preferred on this occasion.

Selection: Newmarket 4.50 Billingsgate to win

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