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 Japan has come agonisingly close to lifting the coveted Group 1 Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on a number of occasions over the years, but none more so than last term when Orfevre was caught in the last couple of strides by the filly Solemia.

Most observers who chose to watch racing online with bet365, felt that the five-year-old was an unlucky loser in Paris last autumn having been drawn wide, running further than anything else in Europe’s most prestigious middle distance contest.

He surged in spectacular fashion into what appeared an unassailable three-length lead inside the final furlong, only to be run down by Solemia – who returned at racing odds of 33/1 – under a power-packed finish from Olivier Peslier. Orfevre then missed out narrowly again on his final start of the term when beaten a nose in the £2.1 million Japan Cup in November.

The impression given by the son of Stay Gold in his recent Arc trial, the Group 2 Qatar Prix Foy at Longchamp in early-September, was that, if anything, he appears an even better horse this term than last. Always travelling powerfully under Christophe Soumillon, the odds-on favourite showed a smart turn of foot to quicken into the lead over a furlong from home before being eased down to beat the very useful Very Nice Name by three lengths.

It came as no surprise to learn that Orfevre’s racing odds of going one better in the Arc this time around were quickly slashed from 6/1 to 7/2 favourite.

On the same Arc trials card, Japanese Derby winner Kizuna furthered raised hopes that his nation might win the Arc when proving a short-head too good for a rejuvenated Ruler Of The World, the Epsom Derby winner coming back after a dismal effort last time out.

Kizuna is generally an 8/1 to win the Longchamp showcase event, while Aidan O’Brien’s Ruler Of The World is a 9/1 chance.

It’s hard enough finding winners in the ante-post markets for major races and little easier forecasting the weather more than six months in advance, but anyone who thinks we might be in for a wet spring could do worse than take odds of around 33/1 about mud lover Katenko for April’s Crabbies Grand National at Aintree.

A decent sort in his native France in the 2010/11 season, Katenko rather lost his way after that and appeared on the downgrade when joining the Venetia Williams yard last November. The change of scene and routine soon appeared to have done him the world of good though, the gelded son of Laveron beginning the season on a handicap mark of 129 and ended it as a horse not too far off Gold Cup class, with a rating of 157.

After being badly in need of the outing on his first start for new connections at Haydock in November, Katenko encountered his favoured heavy ground when running second to the decent Wyck Hill in the listed Champagne Bollinger Silver Cup Handicap Chase at Ascot a few days before Christmas.

Early in the New Year, he showed his Ascot effort to have been no fluke at all when staying on strongly to land the £31,000 first prize in Sandown’s 32Red.com HBLB Handicap Chase off a mark of 136.

In heavy ground, three weeks later Katenko turned out for the valuable Grade 3 Murphy Group Handicap Chase at Cheltenham having been raised 11lbs for his Sandown victory. It proved no barrier to success though as Williams’ charge slammed a good field, scoring by an impressive 16 lengths from the very useful Fruity O’Rooney.

A bout of colic ruled the much improved chaser out of the Gold Cup, but he is fully recovered now and the latest odds at betfair suggest that he could be a force to be reckoned with at Aintree if he gets his essential testing underfoot conditions.

This Saturday, 6th April, it’s time for the greatest steeplechase in the world: The John Smith’s Grand National (4:15 Aintree). Check out our guide to the Grand National here. Of all horse races this attracts the attention of the general public and a race that many enjoy a flutter. But can you beat the bookies? I’m going to cut to the chase and just say it now: ”Can I please have another 100/1 winner? I guess that seems a tall order. Perhaps I’m just plain greedy. But hold your horses don’t I remember seeing a big priced winner? The Grand National is one of those races where anything can happen. In fact since its inauguration in 1829 there have been some remarkable stories. So ”Yes” if I cross my fingers, repeat the mantra Redrumredrumredrum…. until I’m blue in the face, this could be my lucky year.

Don’t believe me? Well let’s take a quick look a few big-priced winners of this amazing race. 

For starters, did you know five horses have won at odds of 100/1?

The most recent was Mon Mone, trained by Venetia Williams and ridden by Liam Treadwell, who won in 2009. 
We have to go back to 1967 to find our next colossal priced winner. Foinavon may not have been the best horse in the world but he was one of the luckiest and famed for his National victory. A loose horse scuppered the chance of just about every rival when mayhem ensued at the 23rd fence. Foinavon, trained by John Kempton, trailed so far behind the field that his jockey had time to steer round the chaos. A few jockeys remounted but as much a they tried they couldn’t catch this most remarkable winner.

In 1947 the Grand National crowd saw another surprise performance when Caughoo won at – you’ve guessed it – 100/1. The eight-year-old was bought for just £50 & traveled from Ireland. Eddie Dempsey rode the horse to victory. Fifty-seven horses ran and all returned safely to their stables.

I know what you’re thinking. These 100/1 winners don’t come along very often? The last two winners had a gap of twenty and forty-two years, respectively. Surely it couldn’t be possible for 100/1 winners to happen in consecutive years? 

Amazingly it happened in 1928 & 1929. 

Tipperary Tim (1928) won a remarkable race. On a misty day with heavy ground conditions, there was a pile-up at the Canal Turn. Seven of the forty-two strong field emerge from the gloom. By the penultimate fence there were only three left standing. One horse was pulled up when his saddle slipped while the other fell at the last fence. William Dutton went on to win with only two horses finishing, after the fallen horse was remounted. The story goes that before the race one of Dutton’s friends said: ”Billy boy, you’ll only win if all the others fall.” His words turned out to be true!

Not only did the race in 1929 prove to be an outside-backers paradise it was also famed for being the largest Grand National field of all time with sixty-six runners. Gregalach, trained by Tom Leader, may have proved victorious at 100/1 but each way backers of the fourth-placed Mallery’s Belle were in for a surprise returning an SP of 200/1.

Surely it couldn’t be time for another 100/1 winner?

Good luck to all. 

Terribly sad today to hear of the sad death of Darlan. We had written about the six year old on a couple of occasions just recently as part of our Cheltenham Festival coverage. The fatal fall occurred during Monday’s trial, with Darlan falling at the last hurdle as he led comfortably. Jockey Tony McCoy gave up the rest of his rides at the meeting. Visibly upset trainer Nicky Henderson said that the jockey was “in bits”.