UK Horse Racing Tips

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It might seem hard to believe, but the Cheltenham Festival will get underway in just over eight weeks. The lead up to the festival is crucial for punters, certainly those who believe in getting maximum value for their bets. This is the time when the pieces of the puzzle start to fall into place, and we get more of an idea of where trainers might be putting their entries. It’s also the point where you can clean up with some ante-post value providing your bookmaker offers non-runner, no bet (NRNB). But it’s also a challenge.

One of the more interesting races to look at is the RSA Chase (now called the Festival Novices’ Chase). At first glance, it looks like a cracker, featuring a rematch of the first two home in the 2020 Albert Bartlett, Monkfish and Latest Exhibition. In MansionBet’s initial RSA Novices Steeplechase tips and predictions for the 2021 event, Envoi Allen was also picked out as joining the pair in what would be an exhilarating three-way tussle for supremacy. But there seems to be a consensus now that Envoi Allen targets the Marsh Novices’ Chase.

Monkfish Now a Huge Favourite

Nevertheless, Envoi Allen is still listed as a selection for the RSA Chase, and he is still priced up by bookmakers. This gives us a fairly uneven picture, with Gordon Elliott’s horse as low as 3/1 with some bookmakers and as high as 14/1 with others. That’s a direct consequence of the belief he eventually goes to the Marsh Novices Chase, where he is the 13/10 favourite.

Monkfish has become the unanimous favourite now for the RSA Chase, coming in at around 7/4. Elsewhere, you have Latest Exhibition at 17/2, The Big Breakaway at 11/1, The Big Getaway at 12/1, and Pencilfulloflead also at 12/1. Next Destination, Shan Blue and Royal Pagaille (all 16/1) are also in the mix.

Obviously, if Envoi Allen’s talents are pointed elsewhere, then it is Monkfish who is catching the eye. While he beat Latest Exhibition by only a neck in the Albert Bartlett last year, the pair have been on different trajectories since then. Monkfish has improved further, and, crucially, he looks like he has another gear to move into should it be required. As it stands, he seems a worthy favourite.

The Dublin Festival Should Be Scrutinised by Cheltenham Punters

But is 7/4 the sort of price you want for an ante-post bet eight weeks before Cheltenham? It is more than possible that Monkfish is a shorter price on the day, and you can see why the money has been pouring in already. But for a bit of value, you might want to look at The Big Getaway in the each-way markets. Willie Mullins’ 7-year-old looked a bit shaky on his first appearance of the season at Navan back in early December, but he bounced back with a fine win after Christmas at Leopardstown.

Mullins will obviously have plans for The Big Getaway at the Dublin Festival in February, and his performance there will have a big say over his price for the RSA at Cheltenham. If The Big Getaway can perform at Leopardstown – the Flogas Novices’ Chase has been mentioned as a possibility by Mullins – then you could see him having his odds slashed afterwards.

There is a problem, of course – both The Big Getaway and Monkfish are trained by Willie Mullins. Will the Irish maestro use both his aces in this race? That’s the conundrum for punters right now. There is the possibility that The Big Getaway is used elsewhere, and he has been touted for a drop back in trip by Mullins. But if he runs in the RSA Chase, some feel he can get closest to Monkfish. That doesn’t say a lot for the British contingent in the field, of course.

In the end, the RSA Chase sums up some of the challenges of pinpointing early value for Cheltenham. Pundits are almost certain than Monkfish will run, and he will go off as one of the big favourites of the festival. But we also need to second-guess where trainers will place their best chips, and some might be rightly scared of Monkfish. The best rule of thumb is to keep an eye on the tips and the rhetoric from trainers. If you see a big price with NRNB that fits the narrative of what might happen, then consider getting on early to grab some value.

Guess who’s number one?

If you’re here, we no doubt have one thing in common – you love a flutter. A ‘flutter’ of course is a bet, be that on the races, football or any sport really. But much like a fingerprint we each have our own approaching t0 betting that is very particular to us. Some of us simply can’t go long without having a win (be it due to the need to keep motivated, or to feel things are going your way). Others though are more geared towards value bets, and so are less inclined to go for short odds selections and more likely to opt for outsiders.

Of course even in opting for outsiders this can be a broad area. Some look for value bets that are a little beyond the rest of the field (say 15-1 to 20-1 kind of range) whereas others are looking for that one memorable win where they spot something that other punters simply don’t (say 100-1 selection). The same is true of the other side of the odds spectrum where some bettors frequently opt for short priced selections from say even money to 3-1, whereas others want win after win and so are no strangers to odds on shots.

Such a strategy (opting for odds-on shots) is of course a risk because you’ll need a very high hit rate. Any disappointment will mean that your betting bank takes a hit, whereas on the other end of the scale if you opt for outsiders your success rate is certainly going to be lower, but when you do have a win your betting bank will receive a significant boost. It’s important also to remember that there are a great many horse racing bookmakers and so you’re often able to ‘shop around’ for the best betting odds (or even get involved in arbitrage betting). Of course not all punters go for an either / or approach, with some spotting value in both big and short odds selections. There are as many approaches as there are gamblers, and if your approach to betting works for you, then that really is the sole factor of importance.