UK Horse Racing Tips

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In the At The Races Supporting Mental Health Foundation Handicap (8.20) at Windsor on Monday evening, Trogon remains a maiden after ten starts, but remains unexposed over a mile on turf and could be worth chancing in a first-time visor. Mick Channon’s 3-year-old has been knocking on the door in similar grade handicaps on the all-weather this spring, but went closest to breaking his duck at Kempton earlier this month, when third of 10, beaten two necks, in a bunch finish behind Harbour Pilot in a 0-70 contest over a mile. In truth, he has looked rather one paced on both starts at, or around, a mile on turf, but the new headgear might just eke out a little more from him, which is really all he needs to open his account.

With the possible exception of the thrice-raced pair Harbour Approach – now, interestingly, trained by Daniel Mark Loughnane, also responsible for Harbour Pilot – and Port Of Call, who’s been gelded since last seen at Kempton in September, the opposition appears exposed as moderate, so it doesn’t require a leap of faith to envisage Trogon opening his account. Mick Channon’s overall record at Windsor leaves something to be desired but, for those in search of a positive statistic, jockey Charles Bishop has a 4-11 (36%) for the yard in the last 14 days.

Fellow maiden New Orleans could prove troublesome if improving, as seems likely, for the step up to an extended mile, in first-time blinkers, on just his second start on turf, but Trogon will do for me on this occasion.

Selection: Windsor 8.20 Trogon to win  5/1

The Newcastle United Foundation Handicap (7.30) at Newcastle on Friday evening is the best race on the card in terms of quality and, while recent winning form is in short supply, may provide course and distance winner Von Blucher with an opportunity to regain the winning thread. Rebecca Menzies’ 5-year-old has to shoulder 10st 5lb, less Connor Murtagh’s 5lb claim, and is on a retrieval mission after failing to beat a rival on his last three starts, including when favourite at Lingfield three starts ago.

However, two of those starts were over an inadequate 6 furlongs and the other was in a conditions stakes race, in which he had little chance at the weights. His January course and distance win – which was franked by the second, Swift Approval – came in a 0-105 contest, off today’s mark of 96 so, from a handicapping perspective, he is entitled to be there or thereabouts, if able to recapture the same level of form.

Interestingly, he’s 2-3 on the all-weather and his one defeat came in a 0-105 contest over 6 furlongs at Lingfield, where he lost his place by running wide on the bend two furlongs from home. He’s no world beater, but is better than his recent form figures imply and potentially well handicapped, so he’ll do for me.

Selection: Newcastle 7.30 Von Blucher to win

The first Classic, the 2,000 Guineas, is less than two weeks away and, while 68 horses stood their ground at the latest declaration stage, against a maximum field size of 25, now could be the time for bold ante post punters to take the plunge. The Master of Ballydoyle, Aidan O’Brien, holds his usual strong hand, with Gustav Klimt and Saxon Warrior, to name but two, while impressive Craven Stakes winner Masar, trained by Charlie Appleby and Elaqarm, trained by Mark Johnston, are both well to the fore in the ante post betting market.

In fact, at the time of writing, it’s 16/1 bar four, which brings in Expert Eye and Roaring Lion, beaten favourites in the Greenham Stakes and the Craven Stakes, respectively, so there appears to be a little room for manoeuvre each-way punters prepared to speculate at potentially lucrative odds.

Notwithstanding the defeat of Roaring Lion in the Craven Stakes, John Gosden is operating at a strike rate of 10-31 (32%) in the last 14 days and it’s one of his three other 2,000 Guineas entries, Kings Shield, that takes the eye at 66/1. He’s by Scat Daddy, better known as a sire of sprinters, including Lady Aurelia and Caravaggio, but out of a mare by the superbly bred Miesque’s Son, so he has plenty of stamina in the bottom half of his pedigree. Indeed, he’s already proved himself over a mile with a decisive win in a small conditions race at Kempton in early April. Exactly what that form amounts to is anybody’s guess, but having won both starts with a minimum of fuss, Kings Shield falls into the proverbial “could be anything” category and looks worth a small interest.

Selection: Newmarket 3.20 Kings Shield each-way (66/1 with William Hill and elsewhere)

Middleham trainer Mark Johnston holds a very strong hand in the Landwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes (3.35) at Newmarket on Wednesday and, although Threading is officially rated 3lb superior to stable companion Nyaleti, the latter was only beaten a head in the Group 2 Shadwell Rockfel Stakes over course and distance when last tried over 7 furlongs. The daughter of Arch made a satisfactory, if unspectacular, reappearance when sixth of 10, beaten 4¼ lengths, behind Gronkowski, in the Listed 32Red Burradon Stakes, over a mile, at Newcastle last month but, back on rain-softened turf with a furlong less to travel, she may be capable of resuming winning ways.

She’s more exposed than most of her rivals, but can reasonably be expected to continue to improve throughout her three-year-old campaign and doesn’t have much to find with the best of these in any case. Her two heaviest defeats as a juvenile both came at the highest level, including once over a mile, so it would be folly to underestimate her in this company.

Selection: Newmarket 3.35 Nyaleti to win