UK Horse Racing Tips

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The Game Spirit Chase is a Grade 2 steeplechase run over 2 miles and 92 yards at Newbury in February. Open to horses aged five years and upwards, the race is named in honour of Game Spirit, a prolific steeplechaser owned by the late Queen Elizabeth the Queen Mother during the Seventies. Inaugurated in 1953, the Game Spirit Chase was promoted to Grade 2 status in 1992, having previously been run as a Listed handicap. Since 2012, the race has been sponsored by Betfair and is currently known, for sponsorship purposes, as the Betfair Exchange Game Spirit Chase.

Paul Nicholls has saddled seven winners of the Game Spirit Chase, namely Flagship Uberalles (2000), Kadarann (2003), Azertyuiop (2004 & 2005), Master Minded (2008 & 2010) and Mr. Mole (2015), making the Master of Manor Farm the leading trainer in the history of the race. Other high-profile winners down the years include Dunkirk (1965), Viking Flagship (1994 & 1996), Sprinter Sacre (2012) and Altior (2017, 2018 & 2020), all of whom won the Queen Mother Champion Chase, or the Two-Mile Champion Chase, as it was originally known, at least once. And let’s not forget Pendil (1973), who won the King George VI Chase twice and was just touched off, at odds-on, in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Unsurprisingly, for a race that routinely attracts a single-figure field, the Game Spirit Chase has proved a rewarding contest for favourite backers, with seven of the last ten market leaders successful, albeit it prohibitive odds on the whole. Recent trends also suggest that an official rating of 154, or higher, is a pre-requisite, as are at least six runs, and two wins, over regulation fences. At the time of writing, the 2023 renewal of the Game Spirit Chase is just days away and Greaneteen, who ticks all the boxes for recent winners, is a top-priced 4/7 to continue Nicholls’ dominance.

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Dave Nevison said about himself: ‘I’m a bloody good winner!’

When you tell someone you’re a gambler they often give you one of those looks. It’s the reason why I don’t tell people I bet. Nothing worse than a pointless exercise. You have nothing to gain.

Mr Nevison used to say to everyone one he was losing on the day so it stopped them asking for a tip. Very few losing punters want to hear you are raking in a fortune. It can make people jealous. Not everyone wants you to win!

Then someone asks: ‘What is your strike rate?’

I guess punters and non punters like to simplify life in a form of categorisation. As if a strike rate really tells the story about your gambling success or failure. It’s dependent on the type of bets you place. To be fair, most punters are creatures of habit. The favourite backer remains the favourite backer for the rest of their life.

I once wrote an article titled: He’s Backed Every Favourite Since 1973.

The poor bloke never had a big priced winner.

Perhaps a strike rate means something if you bet on horses priced at short odds. Let’s face it, if you bet odds-on and you have a 50% strike rate, then the maths tell the story: ‘You’re a loser.’ If you told someone you had a ‘levels you devils’ strike rate they would be impressed. However, the intelligent punter would quickly follow such a statement by asking: ‘What’s your average starting price?’

That’s the thing about gambling, it’s often not what it seems. For example, if a punter makes their own tissue prices to find value in a given race, they may well bet on a number of horses in the same race and one of them may be 100/1 because you feel the true price is 50/1.

What’s your strike rate?

I don’t know about you, but I’d be struggling to work out the strike rate on multiple bets at different odds. If I told someone I had a 10% win rate they would think I’m having a torrid time.

‘So you’ve had ten winners in the last hundred bets? You must be a mug punter!’

Then they notice a wad of cash in your pocket and that Rolex watch on your wrist.

Then you say: ‘I only bet on horses at the minimum price of 100/1.’

‘Nice work.’

The key to winning at gambling is finding value. You appreciate the true odds, while the layer has got it wrong. That is based on skill and spotting a good bet from a bad one.

Dave Nevison said of all the bets he made he was best at spread betting. In fact, he was so good that the firms closed his accounts and at all costs wouldn’t dream of opening them again.

If someone asks how’s your luck, it’s best to say you’re having a bad day.

Then smile and say: ‘I have a 10% strike rate.’

‘Winner!’

Rated 140 by Timeform, alongside the likes of Shergar and Dancing Brave, Sea The Stars was, far and away, the outstanding horse of his generation. In his 3-year-old campaign, in 2009, he beat everything put in front of him, winning six Group 1 races in a row, at distances between a mile and a mile and a half and was named Cartier Horse of the Year.

Trained in Co. Kildare by John Oxx and ridden, exclusively, by Michael ‘Mick’ Kinane, Sea The Stars won the Group 2 Beresford Stakes at the Curragh on his third and final start as juvenile. He reappeared in the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket, where he beat the impressive Craven Stakes winner, and favourite, Delegator, by 1½ lengths. He subsequently became the first horse since Nashwan, in 1989, to complete the 2,000 Guineas – Derby double, beating a bevy of Aidan O’Brien-trained runners, including Fame And Glory, at Epsom.

Thereafter, Sea The Stars started odds-on for his remaining four starts. In the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown, he had to dig deep to fend off the Derby fourth, Rip Van Winkle, but won the Juddmonte International at York and the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown in comfortable, if unspectacular, style, as was his trademark. Stepped back up to a mile and a half for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp, he pulled hard early on, but ultimately quickened clear to win, impressively, by 2 lengths.