UK Horse Racing Tips

Archive for the ‘Trainers / Owners’ Category

Cavendish Stables in Newmarket, Suffolk, is the home to one of the most colourful characters in racing – Alan Bailey. With a long and successful career in the training ranks, he has often been described by racing press as a shrewd, straight-talking man with a choice use of vocabulary to the point of being quoted as not being able to string a sentence together without it containing an expletive or two. Whatever his turn of phrase, Bailey knows how to train a winner – a fact proven by the talented filly Aspen Darlin who competed at the highest level at Newmarket’s 1000 Guineas meeting.

As a two-year-old trainer, he features a limited number of runners and general win rate of 7% and 28% win and place. Over the last five years, his juveniles have won total prize money of almost £190,000. Racing from April onwards, youngsters are predominantly cheap purchases and have limited ability. It is noticeable that a number of his best prospects have run early season. Most juveniles are unfancied in the betting (20/1 – 33/1) and more nursery types. The key to finding Bailey’s precocious juveniles can be identified by following stable money. Connections seem keen to take advantage of betting opportunities with their talented juveniles on debut. Gambles are a significant factor to the fortunes of this stable. If a gamble ensues, two-year-olds hold good win and place prospects when priced 8/1 & less.

Bailey is a capable trainer who generally lacks the class of juvenile to register against the larger Newmarket stables. Aspen Darlin, a truly determined character, must have given her trainer a whole new vocabulary as this bay filly by Indian Haven progressed from maiden winner – claiming Group success along the way – to compete at Classic race level. Her career was concluded on the 3rd May 2009, at Newmarket’s 1000 Guineas meeting, where she sustained a tendon injury. Thankfully her condition wasn’t fatal and although her future as a racehorse was cut short, connections will be hoping her breeding career produces offspring that exemplify such battling qualities.

Saeeb Bin Suroor is one of few trainers to be recognised on the world stage. Bolstered by his connection with Sheikh Mohammed Al Maktoum, Godolphin has transformed horseracing to a point where it would be sadly lacking if we lost this noble presence. Certainly its dominance within British and Dubai-based racing has brought success at the highest levels with a calibre of horse most trainers could only imagine. Perhaps it is for this very reason that punters and journalists alike often lament on their failings – perhaps in justification that money is no guarantee of success.

But what are we to conclude from the performance of their two-year-olds? In recent years the youngsters have been far from impressive, all be it a few sparkling individuals, the general standard and limited number of runners has been disappointing. However, the 2009 season saw more promise with an abundance of runners and winners and this could be reflected in an exciting three-year-old campaign.

Saeed Bin Suroor takes his time with his juveniles with a handful of runners in May but greater numbers throughout the summer and autumn. Their two-year-olds have a general win rate of 28%, which is slightly lower for juveniles on their debut. There is one major finding regarding the Godolphin juveniles: they generally short odds. In recent years, 30% of juveniles have been priced 3/1 & less when making their racecourse bow. Juveniles on their second start make interesting reading. Here their win rate is substantially higher and features an impressive 70% place rate for individuals priced 13/2 & less. However, this statistic must be taken in context. Over 50% of the juveniles, racing and winning in 2009, were priced even money or less and the majority 7/2 & less. Bin Suroor details an impressive win rate at Lingfield (AW) and York – 50% from 40 runners.

There is little doubt Saeed Bin Suroor’s juveniles have the potential to compete at the highest level of racing. However, all too often such promise has failed to materialise. The 2009 season saw a revival of fortunes and this success should be congratulated. This 2010 Flat season may see Godolphin realise their potential, which is only fitting with regard to their considerable investment.

Sir Michael Stoute has attained exceptional racing success from Freemason Lodge in Newmarket. A winner of numerous Classic contests in the United Kingdom and prestigious races across the world, his achievements make enviable reading to even the most talented of trainers of horses.

Stoute generally trains 40 – 55 two-year-old horses each season, varying from the run-of-the-mill maidens to pattern race hopes. A trainer with a wealth of affluent owners, many youngsters have impeccable breeding and feature similarly lofty price tags. With a general win rate of 20% and 44% win and place, Stoute is a consistent trainer with colts and fillies racing selectively. Such is his reputation, that over half of all juveniles start at odds of 13/2 and less on debut and few juveniles win beyond this restricted price guide. In recent years, debutantes have attained a success rate of 14% and a win and place of 33%. Certainly as a betting proposition it may be concluded that the odds on many of this trainer’s juveniles are on the short side due to his popularity as a handler of potentially classy two-year-old horses.

Statistics identify that juveniles have a much greater chance of winning on their second start at similar odds. In addition, juveniles attain a much higher place rate, too. Two-year-old horses can appear as early as May but the majority race from July onwards. Stoute trains for some of the most influential owners in the world: Her Majesty The Queen, K Abdulla & Hamdan Al Maktoum being a selection of a glittering assembly of the great and good within racing. In the last five years, his juveniles have amassed total prize winnings of more than £600,000.

There is little doubt that this accomplished trainer will add more Classic race victories to an already magnificent tally. Pertinently, some will be unveiled as ‘impressive’ two-year-olds.

In recent years, the distinction between the standard of horse from Southern and Northern stables has been noticeably reduced with a number of successful trainers proving that location doesn’t equate to a restriction on talent or the determination to win.

Hambleton House in Thirsk, North Yorskshire, is the home of one such trainer – Brian Smart. He has proven to be a consistent handler when it comes to training all ages but especially two-year-olds. In the last few seasons, this talented trainer has featured a healthy string of juveniles and it would be no surprise to see 30-plus two-year-olds represented in the new publication of the Horses In Trainer 2010. In the last five years Smart has won over £500,000 in prize money with his youngsters attaining a success rate of 18% and a strong win & place of 43%. Juveniles such as Distinctive, Captain Gerrard, Summer Fete, Spin Cycle, Unilateral and Hellvelyn have won substantial prize money. This new season will no doubt unveil a precocious juvenile or two.

It is interesting that many of his best two-year-olds are seen early season, probably with a view to Royal Ascot. Juveniles are often under-priced on debut and a general win rate of 10% and 30% win & place is respectable but suggests that many improve with racing, however, the better types are likely to win on their racecourse bow if competing an average maiden. It is noticeable that Smart has an eye for placing his colts & fillies on their second start and this can be a prime time to bet. Generally, juveniles run very good races when fancied. Noticeable owners include H E Sheikh Rashid Bin Mohammed, R C Bond & Prime Equestrian.

Smart is a trainer to be respected and his talent as a two-year-old trainer will shine for all to see in the 2010 Flat turf season.