UK Horse Racing Tips

Picking the Gold Cup winner this year is possibly going to be harder than ever as a case could be made for about three-quarters of the likely final line-up for the highlight of the Cheltenham Festival.

So one thing which is always worth looking at when you are doing a Cheltenham Gold Cup preview is the history of the race and whether there are any trends you can glean from past results.

Here are a few little pointers which could help you with your selection:

AGE

Of the last 15 winners of the Gold Cup, 14 have been aged between seven and nine, and that includes Best Mate and Kauto Star, who have won the race more than once. Long Run in 2011 is the only six-year-old to have won since 1963, which could put a question mark over Djakadam’s chances.
Meanwhile, only two 10-year-olds have won since Desert Orchid in 1989, so you may want to think twice about the prospects of Bobs Worth, Boston Bob and The Giant Bolster.

RSA CHASE

The novices’ equivalent of the Gold Cup has often been a stepping stone towards success in the Blue Riband itself. Indeed, the last two Gold Cup winners – Bobs Worth and Lord Windermere – won the RSA Chase the year before. Denman and Looks Like Trouble are also relatively recent winners of the RSA Chase and the Gold Cup, while Long Run finished third. O’faolains Bay was last year’s RSA Chase winner, but he is injured. However, Smad Place, Sam Winner, Carlingford Lough and Many Clouds all ran in the RSA 12 months ago.

FESTIVAL FORM

It’s not just the RSA Chase which is a useful guide to future Gold Cup winners. Best Mate, Kicking King, War Of Attrition, Kauto Star and Imperial Commander all ran at the Festival, to varying degrees of
success, before going on to win the Gold Cup. That could certainly bode well for Holywell, who has been a winner at the Festival for the past two years.

ODDS

Seven of the last 12 winners of the Gold Cup have been sent off favourite. Paul Nicholls’ Silviniaco Conti is the ante-post favourite for this year’s race. And, even if the winner is not the favourite, it is usually fancied as Lord Windermere last year was the first horse at a double figure price to win the Gold Cup since See More Business in 1999. Most of the field is currently priced at 10/1 or bigger, though, so it could be worth waiting until the day of the race to make your decision.

EXPERIENCE

The last novice to win the Gold Cup was Captain Christy back in 1974. This year, Coneygree could attempt to emulate that achievement following his impressive win in the Denman Chase last time. That was only his third run over fences, but connections are leaning towards a tilt at the Gold Cup in preference to the RSA Chase. History, though, suggests he has it all to do.

BRITISH OR IRISH?

Only three of the last 17 winners of the Gold Cup have been trained in Ireland and Willie Mullins has yet to break his duck in the race. There will be a strong Irish contingent tackling the race this time and it is going to be a fascinating battle with the British horses.

In summary, it’s probably best to say good luck on picking the winner of the Gold Cup this year! However, if you do use the trends as some sort of guide, then the two to currently focus on would be Silviniaco Conti and Many Clouds.

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