UK Horse Racing Tips

Dave Nevison said about himself: ‘I’m a bloody good winner!’

When you tell someone you’re a gambler they often give you one of those looks. It’s the reason why I don’t tell people I bet. Nothing worse than a pointless exercise. You have nothing to gain.

Mr Nevison used to say to everyone one he was losing on the day so it stopped them asking for a tip. Very few losing punters want to hear you are raking in a fortune. It can make people jealous. Not everyone wants you to win!

Then someone asks: ‘What is your strike rate?’

I guess punters and non punters like to simplify life in a form of categorisation. As if a strike rate really tells the story about your gambling success or failure. It’s dependent on the type of bets you place. To be fair, most punters are creatures of habit. The favourite backer remains the favourite backer for the rest of their life.

I once wrote an article titled: He’s Backed Every Favourite Since 1973.

The poor bloke never had a big priced winner.

Perhaps a strike rate means something if you bet on horses priced at short odds. Let’s face it, if you bet odds-on and you have a 50% strike rate, then the maths tell the story: ‘You’re a loser.’ If you told someone you had a ‘levels you devils’ strike rate they would be impressed. However, the intelligent punter would quickly follow such a statement by asking: ‘What’s your average starting price?’

That’s the thing about gambling, it’s often not what it seems. For example, if a punter makes their own tissue prices to find value in a given race, they may well bet on a number of horses in the same race and one of them may be 100/1 because you feel the true price is 50/1.

What’s your strike rate?

I don’t know about you, but I’d be struggling to work out the strike rate on multiple bets at different odds. If I told someone I had a 10% win rate they would think I’m having a torrid time.

‘So you’ve had ten winners in the last hundred bets? You must be a mug punter!’

Then they notice a wad of cash in your pocket and that Rolex watch on your wrist.

Then you say: ‘I only bet on horses at the minimum price of 100/1.’

‘Nice work.’

The key to winning at gambling is finding value. You appreciate the true odds, while the layer has got it wrong. That is based on skill and spotting a good bet from a bad one.

Dave Nevison said of all the bets he made he was best at spread betting. In fact, he was so good that the firms closed his accounts and at all costs wouldn’t dream of opening them again.

If someone asks how’s your luck, it’s best to say you’re having a bad day.

Then smile and say: ‘I have a 10% strike rate.’

‘Winner!’

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