7.45 Newcastle, Tuesday, January 22
Godolphin ‘castoff’ Rock Warbler is on a losing run of 16 and has his first run for new trainer Michael Mullineaux after an absence of 116 days. However, the son of Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Raven’s Pass has won four times on the Tapeta surface at Newcastle, including over course and distance, and could be potentially well handicapped if rejuvenate by his change of surroundings. His last win, albeit 15 months or so ago, came in a 0-75 contest over 7 furlongs at Gosforth Park, off a handicap mark of 73, so he is undoubtedly well treated if capable of reproducing anything approaching his best form.
Indeed, he was beaten favourite in a similar contest when last seen in September, on his final start for previous trainer Oliver Greenall, off a handicap mark off 67, but ran by no means badly. Ultimately, Rock Warbler could only keep on at one pace to finish sixth of 22, beaten 3½ lengths by the winner Mudawwan but, having been held up, made eye-catching headway with just over a furlong to run. Callum Rodriguez, who rode him on that occasion, retains the ride and the drop back to 6 furlongs may well prove to be a shrewd move on the part of his new handler.
It’s been a while – in fact, over two years – since Rock Warbler tackled an out-and-out sprinting distance, but his record over 6 furlongs, from limited attempts, stands close inspection. If he’s fit and well after his layoff, he should give us a decent run for our money at a shade of odds in the Betway Casino Handicap (7.45).
Selection: Newcastle 7.45 Rock Warbler to win 6/1
Classic Tommo
Derek Thompson goes full Alan Patridge in confusing a man for a ‘beautiful lady’ during a recent At The Races broadcast!
Forming Cheltenham Festival tips
Most experienced punters choose to back their bets early to lock in the best available price. Cheltenham Festival is an event that this is especially useful for, as the odds can change drastically with so many bets being placed in the months leading up to it. It can’t be stressed enough how important Cheltenham Festival is in the world of horse racing, and the odds for each key race can fluctuate up and down based on a lot of different variables, so you need a lot of preparation if you’re choosing to bet on the action.
Betting on Cheltenham racing
The racing season is built on races held at Cheltenham Racecourse, with a day of racing kicking off the new year and the November Meeting taking place towards the end of the year, but the most highly-anticipated event is the festival itself, allowing for Cheltenham Festival tips daily on all primary race meetings. There might only be four days of racing throughout Cheltenham Festival, but there are more than enough races to sink your teeth into and just as many places to pick up a tip.
If you’re unsure over how to identify horses that are capable of winning based on your own research, you can use a horse racing betting tips website for reference, either for the odd bit of help or even for entire bets that you want to back yourself. There’s plenty of options online and each with their own focus, with there being opportunities to see win and each-way bets, as well as more advanced markets like Lucky 15s, NAPs and ante post tips.
Tips for Cheltenham Festival betting
There’s no way of guaranteeing winning horse bets or we’d all be millionaires, but that’s not to say you can’t improve your chances by taking the appropriate steps. We’ve already briefly touched upon the benefits that can be gained through backing your bets early, but it can also make a massive difference to shop around on different bookmaker websites for the best price. Each bookie assesses each individual market with their own set of odds based on how likely they see each outcome, and this can play a key part in your own Cheltenham Festival tips, especially as it could affect the size of the returns you could get from landing your bet successfully.
It’s worth considering your bets and using the appropriate research before backing a horse even if you’re choosing to attend the racecourse in person. Obviously, one of the exciting aspects of racing is the prospect of picking a horse on the day that you’re there yourself; finding Cheltenham Festival tips that possess a stronger chance of landing takes more thought.
Boosting your Betting Bank
Profiting as a professional gambler – or even a casual one – is often a realm of fine very margins. Just look at essentially unwinnable, in the long term at least casino games (with the exception of poker). Even with games like roulette on a one zero wheel, with a tiny 2.7% house edge, that slight margin can soon drain your bank balance if you play for long enough!
With horse racing one of the best ways of reducing the bookmaker edge is by improving your ability to spot value – it’s a key factor. There’s no one way to go about this, as it’s a skill that comes with time and experience. Trial and error, especially when your money is on the line, can certainly prompt a meaningful learning environment for those of the right disposition (as in those, who like to analyse form, physique of horses, follow certain trainers and so on, rather than those drawn to the rush of a big win). But beyond that it can help to try to examine where else you can extract a slight advantage.
One dead cert way, if you’re diligent and organised enough, is to take advantage of bookmaker bonuses and free bet offers. The betting world is such a competitive environment and as such bookmakers try their damnedest to bombard you with enticing offers. Some of them run into triple figures with the odd catch, others offer a legitimately free £20 or £30 bet. I mention catches because there are certain ‘offers’ that are anything but, as you have to gamble x times your stake before you can withdraw your winnings. It’s typically a figure that they clearly decide you’ll have lost your original state by the time you’ve gambled, rather than ever benefiting from the bonus. So really, it’s important to separate supposed “free bets” from actual genuine free bet offers or those with few catches at least.
Most of these offers are essentially introductory offers for new customers, but it’s worth pointing out that some bookmakers do offer ongoing bonuses and incentives too. One bookmaker I joined would often call me from time to time with a free £50 bet here and there if I waged the same amount. It was clearly an effort to prompt me into bigger and regular wagers but if you’re disciplined enough and just take advantage of these freebies it does effectively tip the scale in your favour.
Some gamblers go a step further and combine these introductory and ongoing offers into an approach called Match Betting, where they lay off their free bets, often on a betting exchange, and take the profit at essentially no financial risk to themselves. This can certainly be effective, though I wouldn’t call it ‘betting’ as such, it’s more like a money management approach where you best take advantage of these free bets. Utimately, whatever your approach is, the take home from this is that it’s important to try to make the most of these opportunities to diminish the bookmaker’s edge. Your betting bank may well thank you for it!