Winner trends ahead of the 2018 Grand National
Cheltenham Gold Cup Tips
Generally accepted as the ‘Blue Riband’ event of the National hunt season, the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (3.30) on Friday March 16th requires little introduction. Neither, hopefully, does Native River, who won the Hennessy Gold Cup, the Welsh National and the Denman Chase before finishing a close third in this race last year. Colin Tizzard’s 8-year-old has raced just once since, jumping well to win the Denman Chase for the second year running at Newbury last month. Interestingly, while has won on good going – in a maiden hurdle at Stratford three seasons ago – all his best form has come on good to soft or soft going. The going on the New Course at Cheltenham is currently soft and unsettled weather is forecast for the rest of the week so, while he probably doesn’t it bottomless, the chances are that he should have his favoured underfoot conditions, which wasn’t the case last year.
Officially, Native River has 3lb to find with Might Bite, but Nicky Henderson’s charge did his level best to throw away the RSA Novices’ Chase on his last visit to Cheltenham and, while he’s won both starts this season, including the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day, his tendency to idle in front must be a worry. Might Bite has won his last six completed starts and is unlucky not to be chasing an eight-timer, having fallen heavily at the last, with the race at his mercy, in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton last season. Even so, he has yet to win beyond 3 miles 1 furlong, so he’s unlikely to relish a war of attrition against Native River on properly soft going. Native River, on the other hand, not only has stamina to burn, but is an honest, straightforward customer; he looks a decent bet to give Richard Johnson his first winner of the race since Looks Like Trouble 18 years ago.
Selection: Cheltenham 3.30 Native River to win
Cheltenham Festival Top Trainers
At Cheltenham there are very few certainties, Getabird managed to go from the favourite of the opener to looking lame and getting demolished on Day 1 of The Festival. Footpad ran a lot better in the following race, bulldozing through one of the fences to best the rest of the field and win quite a few lengths clear as the favourite.
Where there is a more straightforward choice, the polar opposite of the Gold Cup, is in the Top Trainer title. As we mentioned before Footpad has already picked up Mullins first win of The Festival and with the depth to his stable you can only see him winning more.
2.00 Lingfield, Wednesday, March 7
In the Play for Free at Sunbets.co.uk/Vegas Handicap (2.00) on Wednesday, Big Amigo escapes a penalty for winning an apprentice handicap over course and distance eight days ago, under Eoin Walsh, and must have every chance of following up. The Bahamian Bounty gelding had done all his previous winning over 6 furlongs on Fibresand or Tapeta, but had run respectably in a 0-85 handicap at Lingfield on his only previous attempt on Polytrack two seasons ago. He was making his debut over a mile, on any surface, at Lingfield last time, but stepping him up in distance proved a shrewd move on the part of connections and he remains very well handicapped on the pick of his form at Southwell. Of course, Fibresand and Polytrack are completely different surfaces, but Big Amigo is 11lb lower in the weights than when winning convincingly over 6 furlongs at the Nottinghamshire track last March and Eoin Walsh takes off another 3lb. Although a 5-year-old, he remains unexposed over course and distance and may yet have more to offer.
Selection: Lingfield 2.00 Big Amigo to win