Winner trends ahead of the 2018 Grand National

The Grand National is just a few weeks away following the incredible four days that took place at Cheltenham. One horse that certainly rose to the occasion is Native River in landing the showpiece Gold Cup. He would without a doubt be a key contender if he took his place in the National but it would be a shock if he now contested the Aintree race. When looking at the latest Grand National 2018 betting it has two horses heading the market; they are Total Recall and Blaklion. However looking to the head of the market does not pay well in the national over the years. Check out the infographic below which covers the key trends to look out for when selecting your 2018 Grand National horses.

 

With most horses entering the age bracket statistic it is not necessarily the key one to look out for however all 67 Grand National winners since 1950 were between the ages of 8 and 12. This of course includes duel winner Red Rum and more recent winners in One for Arthur, Rule the World and Many Clouds. The Grand National is the ultimate test of horse and rider with the difficult jumping test and stamina sapping 4 miles 514 yards. This therefore means you certainly need a top stayer as shown in the fact that just two horses have won the Grand National in the last 47 years having not previously won over 3 miles plus.

 

Looking to the head of the market Blaklion certainly fits the profile as a potential winner of the race. The 9 year old was beaten just 8 ¾ lengths in last year’s race having looked the winner turning in only to be overhauled coming to the end of the race by the likes of One for Arthur. He then followed this up with an incredibly impressive performance in the 2017 Becher Chase where he travelled like the winner throughout having been held up near last. Blaklion then took it up approaching the last and drew clear to win by 9 lengths from previous Grand National runner up The Last Samuri. This was an extremely eye catching performance even though he was receiving 6 pounds from the runner up but he duly landed odds of 7/4 having been the subject to a sustained gamble in the run up to the race. He is certainly one to look forward to if he can further enhance his top performances at the track.

 

Cheltenham Gold Cup Tips

Generally accepted as the ‘Blue Riband’ event of the National hunt season, the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (3.30) on Friday March 16th requires little introduction. Neither, hopefully, does Native River, who won the Hennessy Gold Cup, the Welsh National and the Denman Chase before finishing a close third in this race last year. Colin Tizzard’s 8-year-old has raced just once since, jumping well to win the Denman Chase for the second year running at Newbury last month. Interestingly, while has won on good going – in a maiden hurdle at Stratford three seasons ago – all his best form has come on good to soft or soft going. The going on the New Course at Cheltenham is currently soft and unsettled weather is forecast for the rest of the week so, while he probably doesn’t it bottomless, the chances are that he should have his favoured underfoot conditions, which wasn’t the case last year.

 

Officially, Native River has 3lb to find with Might Bite, but Nicky Henderson’s charge did his level best to throw away the RSA Novices’ Chase on his last visit to Cheltenham and, while he’s won both starts this season, including the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day, his tendency to idle in front must be a worry. Might Bite has won his last six completed starts and is unlucky not to be chasing an eight-timer, having fallen heavily at the last, with the race at his mercy, in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton last season. Even so, he has yet to win beyond 3 miles 1 furlong, so he’s unlikely to relish a war of attrition against Native River on properly soft going. Native River, on the other hand, not only has stamina to burn, but is an honest, straightforward customer; he looks a decent bet to give Richard Johnson his first winner of the race since Looks Like Trouble 18 years ago.

 

Selection: Cheltenham 3.30 Native River to win

 

Cheltenham Festival Top Trainers

At Cheltenham there are very few certainties, Getabird managed to go from the favourite of the opener to looking lame and getting demolished on Day 1 of The Festival. Footpad ran a lot better in the following race, bulldozing through one of the fences to best the rest of the field and win quite a few lengths clear as the favourite.

 

Where there is a more straightforward choice, the polar opposite of the Gold Cup, is in the Top Trainer title. As we mentioned before Footpad has already picked up Mullins first win of The Festival and with the depth to his stable you can only see him winning more.

 

 

2.00 Lingfield, Wednesday, March 7

In the Play for Free at Sunbets.co.uk/Vegas Handicap (2.00) on Wednesday, Big Amigo escapes a penalty for winning an apprentice handicap over course and distance eight days ago, under Eoin Walsh, and must have every chance of following up. The Bahamian Bounty gelding had done all his previous winning over 6 furlongs on Fibresand or Tapeta, but had run respectably in a 0-85 handicap at Lingfield on his only previous attempt on Polytrack two seasons ago. He was making his debut over a mile, on any surface, at Lingfield last time, but stepping him up in distance proved a shrewd move on the part of connections and he remains very well handicapped on the pick of his form at Southwell. Of course, Fibresand and Polytrack are completely different surfaces, but Big Amigo is 11lb lower in the weights than when winning convincingly over 6 furlongs at the Nottinghamshire track last March and Eoin Walsh takes off another 3lb. Although a 5-year-old, he remains unexposed over course and distance and may yet have more to offer.

 

Selection: Lingfield 2.00 Big Amigo to win

 

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