UK Horse Racing Tips

The countdown is on for one of the most eagerly anticipated flat races of the entire calendar as an International field of high-class equine talent will converge on Longchamp for the 2014 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

The ‘Arc’ takes place on Sunday 5th October and it has been won by some true greats in the past 15 years including Montjeu, Sinndar, Dalakhani, Zarkava and five years ago the mighty Sea The Stars claimed the event in dramatic fashion.

The horse to beat

After the most recent trial races, the English Oaks and King George winner Taghrooda is the marginal favourite with Betfair. Will she win?! Here we will run over some of the most important trends of the race in its recent history to try and help pinpoint the winner of this years’ event.

First of all, just two winning favourites for the race in the last ten years have obliged – Zarkava (2008) and Sea the Stars (2009). No horse has retained the Arc since Alleged won the race back in 1977-78. Sea the Stars’ victory back in 2009 was the only odds-on win of the last decade, while Solemia provided the biggest betting shock by springing a 33/1 surprise back in 2012 for trainer Carlos Laffon-Parias.

The winning age category provides some interesting information in that eight three-year old horses have claimed victory in the recent decade, with two four-year-old horses – Dylan Thomas (2007) and Solemia being the only other winners. You would need to go back to the Godolphin-trained Marienbard in 2002 to find the most recent five-year old winner. This would have to be a negative sign for the two Japanese-entered five-year olds in Just A Way and Gold Ship.

Home advantage?

Six of the last ten race winners have been French trained, with Andre Fabre being the only dual winner in that timescale by saddling Hurricane Run and Rail Link for consecutive wins back in 2005 and 2006. Ireland have had two winners, while Britain and Germany make up the remaining two.

Another key element to selecting the winner of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is the draw. Last years’ winner, Treve bucked the trend of recent years with a win from stall 15. In the previous nine races that the Arc has had over ten runners, only Dalakhani back in 2004 passed the post in first place from the top half of the draw. It is interesting to note that both those wins have come up on very soft ground, meaning that it could well be prudent from an ante-post perspective to hold any bets until the draw has been done due to such an imbalance, especially if the ground turns up better than soft.

Form counts

It seems a prerequisite that most winners of the Arc won their previous race before claiming glory at Longchamp. Seven of the last ten winners won before lining up for the race – which would blot the hopes of the likes of English Derby winner, Australia and Oaks heroine, Taghrooda who tasted defeats in the Irish Champions Stakes and Yorkshire Oaks respectively.

Taghrooda however, falls into the female category, which is the form gender of the recent past. Treve, Solemia and Danedream have all redressed the balance for the Fillies and Mares of late which is a boost for the Gosden filly.

This is in no way of a definitive guide to picking the race winner, but these trends do help towards making a sensible decision on which horse or even horses to back. From a current betting perspective, the race is totally wide open, which means that there is value to be had, but bear in mind that the draw and ground can change and that could hinder your horses’ chances if you decide to place an ante-post wager. Good luck!

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