UK Horse Racing Tips

Posts Tagged ‘Trainers’

Sylvester Kirk’s Cedar Lodge stable at Upper Lambourn has often been the home of a decent two-year-old. In recent years Elhamri and Caldra, both running in the familiar colours of owner Norman Ormiston, see photo, have clearly marked Kirk as a talented trainer with wins in listed and group class events. With additional owners such as J.C.Smith, Lady Davis (Art Master), Deauville Daze Partnership (Talking Hands) & Christopher Wright, to name a few, there is always a chance he will soon be adding to his tally.

Kirk is an interesting trainer with a very contrasting level of two-year-olds. His general statistics indicate that he is very unlikely to win on debut and even short-priced juveniles priced 10/1 & less have only attained limited success although around 50% of these individuals managed a place. This again shows the difficultly of juveniles winning on their racecourse bow. For juveniles priced 13/2 & less on second start he maintains a healthy win and place rate and often does well at all-weather tracks. Although often noted as a gambling stable, I have found such plunges rather hit-and-miss.
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Kirk can certainly delivery if he has a decent juvenile.

Kingston Warren, Wantage, Oxfordshire, is the base for a true gentleman of racing, Henry Candy. Although not renowned as being a two-year-old trainer, he is realistic in his appraisal of ability and a considerate handler. The purchase of Amour Propre costing only 1,500gns was inspired and certainly one of the best juveniles he has trained in recent years.

Generally, his string of two-year-olds number in the region of 10 – 15 and rarely appear before June. A win rate for all juvenile runners of 11% and 32% win and place indicates a fair level of success. It is apparent from a 4% win rate on debut that juveniles are likely to improve with their racing and a good number of these were priced 13/2 & less which doesn’t inspire confidence. As is normally the case, second time out statistics give much more encouragement and two-year-olds are well placed to run big races and determinedly consistent.

Windsor is one of Candy’s favourite courses and feature an average win rate although no course stands out with regard to course, numbers of runners or outstanding statistics. Owners Thurloe Throuroughbreds are always worth noting as potentially mines for talented juveniles – Corrybrough is a sparkling example.

Candy is an interesting trainer because although he doesn’t have a vast string of two-year-olds or a wealth of talent he is capable of finding a classy individual and achieving much success. This contrasts with most trainers who have little or next to no chance. Certainly Amours Propre, Corrybrough & Oldjoesaid have highlighted the talents of this affable man.

Cavendish Stables in Newmarket, Suffolk, is the home to one of the most colourful characters in racing – Alan Bailey. With a long and successful career in the training ranks, he has often been described by racing press as a shrewd, straight-talking man with a choice use of vocabulary to the point of being quoted as not being able to string a sentence together without it containing an expletive or two. Whatever his turn of phrase, Bailey knows how to train a winner – a fact proven by the talented filly Aspen Darlin who competed at the highest level at Newmarket’s 1000 Guineas meeting.

As a two-year-old trainer, he features a limited number of runners and general win rate of 7% and 28% win and place. Over the last five years, his juveniles have won total prize money of almost £190,000. Racing from April onwards, youngsters are predominantly cheap purchases and have limited ability. It is noticeable that a number of his best prospects have run early season. Most juveniles are unfancied in the betting (20/1 – 33/1) and more nursery types. The key to finding Bailey’s precocious juveniles can be identified by following stable money. Connections seem keen to take advantage of betting opportunities with their talented juveniles on debut. Gambles are a significant factor to the fortunes of this stable. If a gamble ensues, two-year-olds hold good win and place prospects when priced 8/1 & less.

Bailey is a capable trainer who generally lacks the class of juvenile to register against the larger Newmarket stables. Aspen Darlin, a truly determined character, must have given her trainer a whole new vocabulary as this bay filly by Indian Haven progressed from maiden winner – claiming Group success along the way – to compete at Classic race level. Her career was concluded on the 3rd May 2009, at Newmarket’s 1000 Guineas meeting, where she sustained a tendon injury. Thankfully her condition wasn’t fatal and although her future as a racehorse was cut short, connections will be hoping her breeding career produces offspring that exemplify such battling qualities.

Saeeb Bin Suroor is one of few trainers to be recognised on the world stage. Bolstered by his connection with Sheikh Mohammed Al Maktoum, Godolphin has transformed horseracing to a point where it would be sadly lacking if we lost this noble presence. Certainly its dominance within British and Dubai-based racing has brought success at the highest levels with a calibre of horse most trainers could only imagine. Perhaps it is for this very reason that punters and journalists alike often lament on their failings – perhaps in justification that money is no guarantee of success.

But what are we to conclude from the performance of their two-year-olds? In recent years the youngsters have been far from impressive, all be it a few sparkling individuals, the general standard and limited number of runners has been disappointing. However, the 2009 season saw more promise with an abundance of runners and winners and this could be reflected in an exciting three-year-old campaign.

Saeed Bin Suroor takes his time with his juveniles with a handful of runners in May but greater numbers throughout the summer and autumn. Their two-year-olds have a general win rate of 28%, which is slightly lower for juveniles on their debut. There is one major finding regarding the Godolphin juveniles: they generally short odds. In recent years, 30% of juveniles have been priced 3/1 & less when making their racecourse bow. Juveniles on their second start make interesting reading. Here their win rate is substantially higher and features an impressive 70% place rate for individuals priced 13/2 & less. However, this statistic must be taken in context. Over 50% of the juveniles, racing and winning in 2009, were priced even money or less and the majority 7/2 & less. Bin Suroor details an impressive win rate at Lingfield (AW) and York – 50% from 40 runners.

There is little doubt Saeed Bin Suroor’s juveniles have the potential to compete at the highest level of racing. However, all too often such promise has failed to materialise. The 2009 season saw a revival of fortunes and this success should be congratulated. This 2010 Flat season may see Godolphin realise their potential, which is only fitting with regard to their considerable investment.